ENRESA – Stochastic Analysis Method
Design and implementation of a new ENRESA Planning System (SPE) through the modelling of all the Company’s activities and the implementation of a Stochastic Analysis Method for the estimation of risks and uncertainties affecting the costs of these activities.
ENRESA is a company that fulfils an essential public service: collecting, treating, conditioning and storing radioactive waste generated anywhere in Spain.
Project Resolution Objectives:
The objectives set out in the project are:
- Periodic verification, and whenever deemed appropriate or necessary, of the validity of the scenarios formulated, analysed, accepted and incorporated in the PSS, in accordance with the evolution or change in the technical or economic context of the standards and the activities of the sectors involved, making it advisable to do so, allowing for the continuous adaptation of the System to the changing reality to be guaranteed.
- The management of ENRESA’s projects in both their economic (Budgetary Control) and technical aspects, integrating predictive tools allowing not only for the adequate and efficient tracking of these projects but also providing mechanisms to aid the decision-making process by the Project Managers, identifying possible deviations in terms of deadlines and costs.
- Management of the entire cost estimation process, that is to say, of the actions included in the General Radioactive Waste Plan (GRWP) and, in particular, of the production processes performed at the ENRESA facilities (the “El Cabril” Disposal Facility, the Centralised Temporary Storage Facility for SF/HLW, etc.).
- Management of the risks and uncertainties deriving from events unforeseen in terms of the magnitude and direction of their impact and having a direct impact on cost estimates.
- Management of the Fund for the financing of all the actions of the General Radioactive Waste Plan, ensuring the correct correlation between the foreseen cost and the fee financing it.
Technical tasks to be developed by the ITCL Technology Centre:
The different modules will have the following milestones to be considered:
- Preliminary information.
- Scenario formulation.
- General databases.
- Management programmes.
- Deployment of variables.
- Cost databases.
- Cost model.
- Uncertainty management.
- Distribution of costs by rates.
- Calculation of income.
- Integration of modules.
2018 – 2020
Project in cooperation with:
The project has been financed under a public tender contract from ENRESA.
Javier Sedano – R&D Director at ITCL Technology Center
Silvia González – Head of AI at ITCL Technology Centre